Base-rate logic
What is most likely
Base-rate puzzles test whether you use the background numbers before guessing.
Quick answer
Answer: blue
There are 9 blue tiles and 1 red tile, so blue is much more likely.
How to use it
1
Count the options.
2
Compare the proportions.
3
Choose the more common outcome.
4
Avoid treating rare outcomes as equally likely.
What this trains
Probabilistic reasoning
Attention to data
Decision making
Assumption control
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